This is no time to be off our guard

By DSF Founder and President, Lady Olga Maitland

This is no time to be off our guard. In truth, this is not a festive season.

We had a sobering briefing last week at the DSF Round Table with Dr. Nigel Gould-Davies, the former UK Ambassador to Belarus, now Senior Fellow on Russia with the IISS. His message was stark: “Peace is unlikely soon in Ukraine, and there is no doubt that Russia is pushing to divide and weaken NATO. An example was the four countries who blocked the plan in Brussels to use  Russian frozen assets to support Ukraine.

Further, I note that China has shifted from lukewarm support for Russia’s war with Ukraine to active engagement. This comes at a time when President Trump has no fear of Russia. They regard him as on their side. This would explain the bullying of Zelensky to accept unfair and unjust peace terms, with threats of abandoning them if they do not agree to the terms offered.”

Add to this the lack of NATO's political will to increase defence spending while it is faced with an actively hostile Russia - a Russia ruthlessly pursuing a 'shadow war' through arson, cyber attacks, sabotage, public manipulation, constant surveillance in our waters, and threats to the undersea cables that carry the internet. It is real.

What was important was the mood in the briefing that evening, which I hosted as President of the Defence and Security Forum. The audience included major city investors as well as security experts. The dialogue was led by Sam Olsen, Senior Analyst at Sibylline Intelligence, who pressed the case for active public engagement to demonstrate spirited resilience to Russian intimidation.

As he argued, “Imagine a day when the electricity grid has been hit by a cyber attack. No lights… no water… no phones, no internet. Completely cut off. This happened recently in the west country where I live.  This time, mercifully, it was a technical fault, but it is a clear warning of what might be.”

I stressed the importance of society playing its own role in refusing to be bullied by Russia. The room wholeheartedly agreed to move the debate beyond discussion to active public engagement from the City - whose interests are under threat - protecting financial and intellectual capital across government and the nation as a whole.

In the end, this is our war, our identity and prosperity at stake. I very much hope that the British government will act on its words and release the frozen £8bn of Russian assets held by UK banks to support Ukraine. So far, fine words have been lost in a maze of bureaucracy.

We should take note of the First Sea Lord, General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, who said on Monday, “The comfort that we take from being an island that is separated from Europe is a false comfort.” It should be noted that we are faced with  constant menace and spy tactics by Russian submarines lurking over our undersea cables around England and Ireland and into the Atlantic.

Put this into the context of a confident Putin firmly believing that Europe will never have the will to confront him. Indeed, as the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, said this week, “We are living in a new era of threat which is less predictable and more dangerous.”

The head of MI6, Blaise Metrevili, was equally blunt: “We all continue to face the menace of an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist Russia seeking to subjugate Ukraine and harass NATO.”

Sadly, this will not be a peaceful Christmas for Ukraine, but in the end, we are all affected - this is our war. I am determined that we, the British people, in the months to come will demonstrate our spirit to refuse to be bullied and form a social deterrence which will make it very clear where we stand.