From the Arctic to Tehran: A World on Edge

By Lady Olga Maitland

A turbulent world is indeed upon us. Faraway events can still impact us deeply.

The news this week, that the Greenland issue may have a softer landing than earlier anticipated, is hopeful. Perhaps a salutary question came from Republican senator Mitch McConnell speaking from the Senate floor: ‘I have yet to hear from this Administration a single thing we need from Greenland that this sovereign people is not ready and willing to grant us.

Unless and until the President can demonstrate otherwise, then the proposition at hand today is pretty straightforward: incinerating the hard-worn trust of loyal allies in exchange for no meaningful change across the Arctic.’

At a press conference outside the White House, Denmark’s Foreign Minister Rasmussen, after meeting with White House officials, stressed that ‘it was not necessary for the US to acquire Greenland, for all the security concerns are shared and understood.’

In my view, for the President to play hardball is not new. But it was pointed out by Mr. Rasmussen that no Chinese vessels have been in the area in the whole of the last decade. And the US and Greenland have had harmonious relations for 225 years - so why change it now?

The bigger issue for all is how to survive the Age of Trump. It is true that the old world order is so changed it cannot go back. Bite the bullet and accept that without European military might, it is a case of accepting Trump’s diktat: ‘You will do it my way or else’…unpalatable, to say the least. We have no choice but to find, as Peter Mandelson said this week, ‘a modus vivendi’ in this Age of Trump.

Iran

For the moment, there is a tense silence on  streets that remain heavily controlled by the military. The regime is hanging on and most likely not going anywhere. They will slug it out. But its composition could change. So the question is what happens next to the ailing Ayatollah Khamenei, a theocrat who believes in his divine mission? He is wildly out of touch with the modern world. The message I am getting privately is that the IRGC might topple him and put a technocrat in his place, thus opening up economic opportunities and relieving pressure from a frustrated nation.

What is clear is that a military intervention by the US or Israel could have unintended consequences. Far from hurting Iran, such an action might rally the public to the discredited government. But as I write, the question in Tel Aviv is why Mr. Netanyahu and his wife have boarded his plane, ‘Wings of Zion,’ for an unknown destination. No explanation is forthcoming so far.

Ukraine

Do not forget Ukraine. The temperature has plummeted to –20°C. Added to that, the constant Russian pummelling of energy grids has turned the lights out and the heating off.  Life is brutal. But the messaging I get constantly is that the Ukrainian people are not giving up. ‘Imagine a life under Russian control? It would be extremely harsh and unbearable. We will never accept it.’

Meanwhile, Zelensky is beefing up his military team. A new defence minister has been tasked with ramping up the new battlefield technology needed to survive. They will need it, as US trade envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner prepare to go to Moscow for another round of peace talks - backed by President Trump, who is blaming President Zelensky for blocking progress.