Regime Change and Red Lines

By Lady Olga Maitland

Where does the UK stand in today’s turmoil? Frankly, without military power, we are weak and ignored. Handwringing over the lack of respect for international law is now a waste of time. A new world order where ‘might is right’ is here.

The reckless intervention in Venezuela (not the first such US expedition - remember how General Noriega was whipped out of Panama?) has a blatant aim: regime change; very unlikely to produce a government to its liking - and a grab for Venezuelan oil. This sends a bleak message to the world.

Does this mean it’s now acceptable for Russia to invade Ukraine? Does authoritarian power now rule?

And Trump is turning his focus back to Greenland (a fellow NATO member), Iran, Colombia, and Mexico.

Our immediate threat is the security of Europe, and indeed our own country. We are already under constant attack by Russia in a so-called Shadow War, with daily evidence of intrusions into our daily lives.

Trump’s attention will swing back. His relationship with Putin will take another turn as a furious Russian leader condemns the attack on his ally Maduro, not to mention the cutting of oil supplies to Russia.

A deadly attack on a Kyiv clinic within hours of the news breaking is one example. The lights continue to go out in Ukraine and the brutal killing machine grinds on.

Putin, a master at playing Trump like a violin, will have the last word. In the end, Trump will not want to lose his friend and ally. European security is not his deep concern. He has been pressuring President Zelensky to agree to a peace deal which, without solid US security guarantees, is a non-starter. And Russia has dismissed it anyway.

So the war in Ukraine staggers on, and with it comes more subversive pressure from Russia on Europe, the UK, and our crown jewel - the City of London.

What is certain is that pressure will mount on the British government to raise its defence posture. The public will soon be asking questions, even if politicians are not: Why don’t we have proper air defences? Why, why, why….

Today we are faced with an awakened Russia, a disinterested Trump, and a sleeping continent. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence has more horses than tanks.

Iran

I had an anxious visitor from Iran  recently. Will the US bomb again? A genuine fear, clearly. It’s hard to say what is in President Trump’s mind, apart from his threat to intervene to protect protesters. It should be noted that seven Boeing C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft have been moved to Europe. So far, 19 people have died. We have now entered the ninth day of demonstrations, which began in Tehran’s commercial district and have now spread across the country.

The government fears the merchants, who have been the backbone of the economy, and has tried to engage with them, threatening punitive taxes if they don’t end their strikes and reopen their shops. But inflation and currency freefall have simply gone too far to bear.

What is lacking, however, is leadership and co-ordination. A comment from my contact in Beirut is that this will be key if the protest movements are to push for real change. What is evident even now is that social media is becoming more organised. Added to that, state television is now covering events. Could this be a sign the government is listening—or could it be that the coverage may help legitimize the protests and encourage their continuation?