The Forever War: Trump's Never-Ending Ping Pong

By Lady Olga Maitland, March 2026

The shifting parameters every hour make analysis tricky. What is for sure is that there will be no easy or quick conclusion. The campaign is costing the American government at least US$1bn a day, so the national debt is rising fast. For all that, President Trump is pressing Congress for US$200bn to fund the next steps in the war.

The global impact on oil prices is creating furious debates among governments, putting them all in a quandary over how to maintain supply and at what cost, politically and economically.

As for Mr Trump himself, he is playing up a settlement to calm the markets — a crisis of his own making.

As the weeks roll by, the scenario is messy as protagonists twist and turn.

But out of the fog, several points have been made to me by analysts with close links to the region.

One is a view that despite Iran being smashed both militarily and in terms of resources, there is some quiet messaging about a willingness by Iran to bring the war to an end. All this despite the daily headlines of fire and fury from Mr Trump.

The country may have been devastated, but the IRGC do not want to be humiliated and will fight hard. They do have leverage: controlling the Strait of Hormuz. After all, it is the passageway not only for oil and gas, but also for vital fertilisers, chemicals and metals affecting everything from AI and semiconductors to fertilisers and food production.

Dr Mehrdad Khonsari, director of the Centre for Iranian Policy Studies, tells me: “The IRGC are privately willing to talk; they are a new team. They may be radical, but they are not stupid. They will bide their time. In my view, they will reach an agreement. They have no choice.”

Across the region, moods vary.

In Beirut, my source there tells me that the shifting of 1m Shia population has been managed with remarkable pragmatism. Religious divides have disappeared. Families have found shelter in schools and institutions, sharing four families to a tiny flat. Monasteries have opened their doors, providing food and shelter. “Religion does not matter. Everyone is helping, from all religions and in all communities. It is what we do.  However, for now there is no communication between President Aoun’s government and Mr Netanyahu. The US presidential envoy Morgan Ortagus, under Steve Witkoff, has made little impact on events.

Further down in the Gulf, in Dubai, while holidaymakers have fled, the residential expat community presses on, “business as usual”, but often working from home. The efficiency of the Emirati armed services has played a key role in intercepting missiles and drones, vital for its essential message: keeping the country safe for business.

As one expat said to me: “Even if we do take a break for a pre-planned holiday, we still return.”

Up in Kuwait, thousands are clogging the roads fleeing to the relative safety of Saudi Arabia.

Holidaymakers are still sunning themselves in Sharm el Sheikh. Egypt so far has been out of the picture. But a Middle East source tells me this may not last. The Houthis are being held back as a bargaining chip by the IRGC. They are straining at the leash to block the Red Sea, through which Saudi Arabia relies as an outlet for its exports.

Final word – Ukraine

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to be battered, with energy sources all over the ground shattered by Russian strikes. More darkness, more stress.

Peace talks stumble along. President Trump has promised high-level security guarantees for Ukraine — but the sting in the tail is that Kyiv must withdraw from the Donbas, in effect handing over territory which the Russians do not even control.

President Zelenskyy’s assessment is that Vladimir Putin is committed to continuing the war — despite US claims that the Russians remain open to a settlement.

Russia, meanwhile, is smuggling weapons to Iran, a turnaround after all the weaponry Iran sent to Russia for the Ukraine war. Will this take the heat off Ukraine, I wonder?

Russian shadow fleet thrives in the chaos of war

Back on our shores, I welcome, at last, the government’s decision to take action over the sanctioned Russian naval fleet cruising freely through our waters en route to the Mediterranean and on to supply India and China with oil.

They are easily spotted. The most that has happened so far is that the Border Force asks the captain of the vessels for their insurance papers.

The announcement should be viewed with caution. At least the principle of allowing our special forces to detain the ships has been accepted. But will they? Being very British, we have been tangled with legal niceties, which do not bother either the US or indeed Russia