Russia, Iran, Europe - can we re-arm fast enough?

By Lady Olga Maitland 15 May 2026

The Kremlin’s View of No. 10

The events at No. 10 Downing Street are not going unnoticed by President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. As far as he is concerned, it is another example of a NATO country falling apart and becoming disunited - a welcome distraction from the war in Ukraine, which continues unabated and brutal.

My Moscow source chuckled to me: “This is just what they delight in seeing. Moreover, none of the candidates vying to be Prime Minister have even the remotest experience with international relations. The UK is seen as weak, and the Kremlin is relishing the chaos.”

However, all is not quite so calm within the Kremlin.

President Putin and indeed his cronies are weighing up future talent for a successor. A coup is not expected, but an heir apparent needs to be prepared and schooled. In this regard, a number of hand-picked people are being given posts within the inner sanctum and shuffled to gain experience. Eventually, they hope an obvious candidate will emerge.

There is no end to the challenges. A much-depleted Victory Day parade in Moscow was telling: no hardware, no tanks, no missiles - and marching troops were boosted by North Koreans. Fearful of a Ukrainian attack, Putin pushed for a so-called temporary ceasefire. Tongue in cheek, Zelensky said Ukraine would “allow a parade to be held in Moscow.”

But there is change in the air. Russians are starting to imagine a future without Putin as disillusionment sets in. The Ukraine war is no longer "our" war, but "his" war. The conflict has grown in length, scale, and impact, offering no benefit to the average citizen who carries the mounting costs. The standard of living has dropped, except for those paid by the Russian government for active military service. Grumbles about internet restrictions have increased the sense of decay; indeed, the optimism that once fired society has now been eroded.

On the international front, however, Russia remains active. The urge to expand its influence remains unabated. Estonia knows this very well. In the city of Narva, perched on the Russian border, they feel the pressure. With 97% of the population speaking Russian, the city was once part of Russia, and Putin has mused that it "would need to be taken back." Not surprisingly, there is a powerful voluntary defence army of both men and women, all trained to prepare for war.

Not far away, Belarus is seen by the Russians as a helpful buffer state, serving as a platform and staging post for their weapons. Initially, after independence, the country relished its freedom and neutrality. But that is gone. Gradually, Russia subjugated Belarus without formal annexation. The country is now authoritarian, steeped in a Soviet ethos with no room for dissent. It serves as a launchpad for Russian missiles and drones into Ukraine. Its air force has been modified to carry Russian nuclear payloads under Russian operational control. Despite this, the West continues to maintain a working relationship with the Belarusian leadership in the hopes of weakening the link.

Iran: The Mirage of Peace

The ceasefire is a mirage, and it has caught Donald Trump in a bind. While Pakistan has stepped up as the mediator in peace talks, the reality is that both sides are sitting firmly on their own proposals. There is no movement to speak of, despite ongoing back-channel discussions. President Trump is growing impatient as the war harms him politically at home. It appears he rues the day he listened to Netanyahu’s assurances that the war would be fast and easy. My Iranian source tells me that Jared Kushner said privately, “They put one over  us.”

Trump may be in a hurry to push for an end and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the Iranian government feel they have time on their side.They now control the Strait, a more potent weapon than the nuclear bomb.  Indeed, it should be noted that the IRGC is far more resilient than Washington ever anticipated.

In any case, there is no single decision-maker today. The best chance in fact rested with the late Ayatollah Khomeini, who admitted to possessing nuclear weapon uranium, but explicitly forbade his people from building nuclear weapons on the grounds that it was haram. That restraint is now gone. To cap it off, Iran does not trust any agreement after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA deal. Worse, there is no one single person with the ultimate authority to sign up to any new agreement.

My source tells me there is a battle between the pragmatists, such as Foreign Minister Araghchi and Speaker Qalibef, who are being outsmarted by powerful military figures in the IRGC such as Mohammad Zolghadr and Ahmad Vahidi. No wonder Mr. Trump is hoping that his friend President Xi might influence matters; Xi was instrumental in getting the IRGC to agree to talks in the first place. But as ever, there will be a payoff to suit the Chinese leader. Will Mr. Trump back off on his support for Taiwan?

Europe Stepping Up

The clash between Mr. Trump and Europe has had some consequences. Europe may be weak, but in truth, President Trump does need us. Europe has been a platform for Washington’s airbases to launch its attacks on Iran.  The US has huge financial interests in Europe, and its transatlantic partnership accounts for around one-third of global trade. European intelligence-gathering capability is a resource the US cannot afford to lose.

But here is the rub: for some time, there has been a big pushback by the US on European defence. The slightest criticism from Europe brings violent retribution by Mr. Trump. His latest laser was targeted at German Chancellor Merz for comments about the US being humiliated by the Iranians, a point echoed by Macron and Meloni.

In truth, Europe is finding its voice and is no longer afraid of Washington.

The immediate consequences looked dire. Trump cancelled the promised deployment of Tomahawk missiles to Germany. Designed to give Europe a “Deep Precision Strike” capability with a range of up to 3,000 kilometers, the agreement was originally made by President Biden and regarded as critical to European strategic infrastructure.

Can we go it alone? Yes.

The combined GDP of Europe and Canada is $25 trillion, more than ten times that of Russia. The economic conditions for a substantial military buildup exist. Europe must get used to decoupling from the US (post-Trump, NATO as an institution will survive albeit in a different form).

Political will must now translate European self-assertion into action. We are fighting against time. We have barely three to five years for Europe to reach a credible threshold to convince Moscow that attacking NATO territory would be catastrophic. The creative defence sector is alive and well. I believe we can do it.