Syria: Power, Conflict and Diplomacy

A report following the Defence and Security Forum Dinner on 17 June 2025, London

Speaker: Firas Modad, Modad Geopolitics

Moderator: Sir Liam Fox, former Secretary of State for International Trade, and Chairman of the UK Abraham Accords Group

Presiding: Lady Olga Maitland

This report has been prepared by Archie McGowan.

The contemporary Middle East is navigating a period of profound transformation, likened to the post-Versailles reshaping of the region. Amidst complex challenges and deeply rooted historical divisions, some hold a cautiously optimistic outlook. Economic development focused on people, not borders, could foster a new trajectory for its young generation. Syria stands as a pivotal example of this opportunity, grappling with significant internal changes and the imperative for stability.

Syria's Internal Transformation Under New Leadership:

Under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria is aiming to chart a new course, seeking to learn from the experiences of neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon. Sharaa presents himself as a pragmatic leader, fostering cooperation with regional and Western counterparts. A secular democracy faces significant challenges in the short term; an authoritarian model with a Sunni-dominated, capitalism-friendly orientation is more likely. Idlib has seen strong and legitimate governance under Sharaa. The challenge for the new leadership will be to extend this stability to more religiously diverse and less conservative populations, such as those in Damascus, while navigating the persistent sectarian divisions and deep-seated historical animosities that continue to impede peace and tolerance.

Economic Potential and International Engagement:

Despite widespread poverty, a dynamic economic landscape is beginning to take shape across Syria. Previously deserted villages are witnessing the re-emergence of markets and businesses, signifying a nascent recovery. Business leaders are actively engaging directly with Sharaa, underscoring his focus on attracting crucial investment. Reports suggest an extremely positive reception to Sharaa's recent international visits, gaining praise from nations including France, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon. Furthermore, countries such as Kuwait are also exploring enhanced economic ties, keen to ensure a balanced distribution of influence in Syria and avoid undue dominance by the Saudis and Emiratis. This burgeoning economic activity is generating a sense of excitement and potential beyond Sharaa’s traditional Sunni strongholds. For Western and regional economic development to deliver transformative change, investment must be focused on young populations and support for entrepreneurship. Doing so will allow them to break free from the cycles of violence passed down by their history.

The Mood on the Ground: A Want for Stability:

A consistent sentiment among the Syrian population is a profound tiredness of conflict and an overwhelming desire for stability. For many, the immediate concern is not the prospect of democracy, but rather the establishment of secure conditions to rebuild their country, educate their youth, and secure employment. Even among those experiencing restrictions reminiscent of the Assad regime, there is a palpable welcome for the prospect of stability and job creation. A sense of hope, albeit with reservations for some regarding the new government, pervades the atmosphere. This is reflected in the contrast between the "optimism" observed among Sharaa's core supporters in Idlib and the more cautious "hope" felt in Damascus. This prevailing mood has fueled expectations within Syria for a significant return of refugees in the coming summer months.

Challenges and Risks to Stability:

The success of Sharaa's economic agenda is paramount. Failure to deliver tangible economic development could allow longstanding sectarianism and tribal divides to be exploited by factions seeking to sow discord within Syrian society. Such a failure would have implications beyond Syria's borders, impacting the wider region. A significant risk of weapon proliferation exists, given the substantial quantities of arms currently within Syria. Securing these weapon stocks is crucial to preventing regional destabilisation in what remains a volatile "tinderbox." Furthermore, the potential for increased Islamic State attacks necessitates a robust and comprehensive security strategy. Effective cooperation with other Arab states and the West will be essential in managing these risks to ensure Syria's long-term stability and economic advancement.

Regional and International Implications:

For Western nations seeking to engage constructively with a transforming Syria, a recalibration of approach will be necessary, shifting focus from an emphasis on liberal democracy to prioritising economic development, particularly among the young. The broader confrontation between Israel and Iran continues to cast a long shadow over the region, with its outcome significantly influenced by the willingness of the United States and other Western powers to support Israel, while balancing concerns about being drawn into further protracted conflicts. Equally, the extent to which Russia and China are prepared to assist Iran in rebuilding its military capabilities will also play a critical role in shaping regional dynamics. For now, it remains challenging to predict the continued engagement or otherwise of all these actors.

By Archie McGowan

June 2025