Strategic Assessments: Warnings from the Front Line
- noahbergman3
- 2 hours ago
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Photo by Specna Arms on Unsplash
By Lady Olga Maitland
Last week, former US General Ben Hodges spoke to us on the subject ‘European Security at a Crossroads as Russia advances’. He gave a stark warning about the nature of modern conflict, arguing that the West is embroiled in a “grey war” or hybrid conflict. “We have not declared a conventional war, but we are under attack. We are in a test of will,” he stated. “Do not be squeamish. Face up to it and show resilience.”
General Hodges contrasted today’s ambiguities with the cold-war era, which he described as “bliss” by comparison, noting that during that period, we knew exactly where we stood. He emphasised that Ukraine’s struggle is fundamentally Europe’s. “Ukraine’s war is our war. If it fails, we all fail. Ukraine is fighting a proxy war for Europe. We must adapt, and quickly, to new circumstances.”
While asserting that Europe has the economic heft to defend itself without American backing, he questioned its political resolve, though he cited Germany’s ramping up of its defence budget and manufacturing as a positive sign.
His comments were echoed by General Lord Dannatt, a former Chief of the General Staff, Army, who stressed: “The hybrid war is not a theoretical threat. It is a threat to test the will of the people and the leaders.”
In a significant recent development, the Trump administration has moved to disrupt Russia’s war finances. It has blacklisted Russia’s top four oil companies, which account for four-fifths of its oil exports, thereby squeezing the revenues from a sector that contributes one-third of the state budget.
Yet, a note of caution following my meeting with Major General Serhii Kryvonos, now in the Ukrainian reserves after two years on the front line. He said that it may take six months for these sanctions to bite, given Russia’s considerable reserves. More ominously, he assessed that Vladimir Putin “cannot afford to lose… otherwise, his Kremlin colleagues will turn on him,” concluding, “We are well aware we have a long fight ahead.”
The theatre of conflict extends further. In a separate London meeting, I met with retired US Space Force Lieutenant General John Shaw who labelled Russia the “Street Bully of Space.” He warned that Moscow is developing a potentially devastating anti-satellite weapon, which appears to use a nuclear explosive capable of destroying thousands of satellites. These underpin modern life, enabling communications, navigation and surveillance. “The US can’t allow Russia’s indiscriminate threat to the world’s space systems on which modern human society depends,” General Shaw said.
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