Securing Europe in an Age of Hybrid Conflict

By Lady Olga Maitland

Executive Summary

Britain faces a sustained and insidious threat from hostile governments, one that operates not through traditional warfare but through hybrid tactics: cyber attacks, disinformation, political interference, and covert sabotage. These efforts aim to erode national resilience, amplify societal divisions, and undermine British sovereignty—all while remaining largely invisible to the public. Despite clear warnings from security services and allies, awareness of this threat remains dangerously low, compounded by a government communications gap and a defence budget that prioritises the welfare state over security. This paper focuses on Russia as key protagonist, although the threat extends beyond Russia to its deepening strategic partnership with China, from where cyber attacks on critical national infrastructure and covert influence in Parliament emanate, and its increasing cooperation with Iran (noting its recent prosecutions).

The consequences of inaction are severe. Attacks on undersea cables could cripple global communications and financial markets. Energy volatility and data breaches already trace back to Russian interference. Meanwhile, Britain’s military readiness lags, with defence spending stagnating at 2.3% of GDP—far below the 5% needed to deter aggression. Without urgent action, the UK risks emboldening adversaries and leaving itself vulnerable to further destabilisation.

The solution lies in a three-pronged approach: awareness, investment, and resilience. First, a national campaign must educate the public on hybrid threats, framing defence as critical infrastructure akin to the NHS. Second, defence spending must rise strategically, tied to jobs, innovation, and NATO commitments. Third, the UK must harden its cyber defences, secure critical infrastructure, and promote media literacy to counter disinformation. 

This is not a partisan issue but a national imperative. By mobilising trusted voices, leveraging media partnerships, and presenting a clear vision of the United Kingdom as unbreakable and prepared, the government can rally public support for these measures. The stakes could not be higher: resilience today prevents crisis tomorrow. The time to act is now.

RESILIENCE: COUNTERING THE THREAT

1. The Invisible Front: Britain’s Unseen War

‘Russia remains ‘the most significant, direct threat’ to NATO,’ says NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte

BRITAIN is under attack, though its citizens might not know it. The threat from hostile governments such as Russia, Iran and China has evolved from the spectre of conventional invasion to a persistent, hybrid offensive designed to erode national stability, trust and sovereignty.  The overarching aim appears to be the systematic erosion of public confidence and weakening of Western democracy.  Sowing discord within Western alliances, most notably by undermining electoral processes in Eastern Europe – as seen in Moldova and Georgia – and fostering a climate of isolationism to fracture the NATO alliance are key features of this strategy.

This campaign is fought not with tanks and troops but through cyberspace, disinformation and covert influence. Its objective is to weaken institutions and sap the national will to resist, achieving strategic gains without firing a shot. Every day of inaction signals a lack of resolve and hands Moscow (and other hostile states) a cost-free victory.

2. The Anatomy of a Hybrid Threat

Hybrid warfare blurs the lines between peace and war. It is a strategy that blends conventional military power with non-traditional tactics, operating below the threshold of open conflict to avoid triggering a unified response. For Britain, this manifests as:

• Cyber Attacks: Systematic targeting of hospitals, government departments, critical national infrastructure and private businesses.

• Disinformation: Sophisticated propaganda networks, including state-sponsored media, troll farms and bot networks, amplify societal divisions—from Brexit and immigration to gender and race—to foster cynicism and disengagement.

• Political Interference: Covert attempts to influence decision-making and electoral processes through lobbying and malign finance.

• Covert Sabotage: Hostile activity against critical undersea infrastructure, such as communication cables and pipelines, as seen in the Baltic Sea. The dense network of cables in the English Channel is a particularly vulnerable choke point. Russia is thought to be behind a series of arson attacks on DHL cargo planes in Poland, Germany and the UK, as well as attempted assassinations, not just of defectors, but of the head of a German arms company supplying weapons to Ukraine. Russian mercenary group Wagner Group was behind an arson attack on a London warehouse sending aid and satellite equipment to Ukraine.  In 2025, the UK sanctioned 18 GRU spies who were running a campaign to destabilise Europe.

The aim is not to conquer territory outright but to confuse, destabilise and create a pervasive sense of institutional decay, making the target nation complicit in its own weakness and decline.

3. The Awareness Deficit: Why the Public Doesn’t See It

Despite clear evidence—from jailed spy rings to Russian aircraft probing airspace and naval ships loitering in our waters, especially The Channel —a significant awareness gap persists. This is a deliberate and effective feature of the strategy.

• The Intangible Enemy: Unlike terrorism or street crime, hybrid threats lack a clear, personal consequence. Few Britons connect energy price volatility or online polarisation to Kremlin policy.

• A Government Communications Failure: While the intelligence services are acutely aware of the threat, the government has struggled to translate their assessments into a relatable and urgent public narrative.

• Successful Obfuscation: By sowing doubt and promoting the idea that "everyone lies," Russian disinformation makes the very concept of truth contested, allowing its operations to thrive in the shadows.

This lack of public awareness is both a symptom of successful hybrid warfare and a critical vulnerability in itself.

4. The Stakes: The Cost of Complacency

The potential consequences of neglect are severe and extend far beyond the military sphere. An attack on undersea cables, for instance, would have a cascading effect:

• Economic Chaos: Financial markets, which rely on millisecond transactions, would seize up, risking billions in losses.

• Communications Collapse: Internet traffic would be forced onto slower satellite links, disrupting government, business and daily life.

• Loss of Confidence: Public trust in the state’s ability to provide basic security would be shattered.

Furthermore, the nation’s conventional defence is faltering. The army is at its smallest size in centuries, key capabilities such as missile defence are lacking, and the UK ranks only ninth among NATO allies in defence spending as a percentage of GDP. The pledge to reach 2.5% is a start, but the deteriorating security environment necessitates swifter movement towards 5%. Ukraine is a warning; Britain must heed it.

5. Conclusion: The Time to Act

Threats from hostile governments, most obviously Russia, China and Iran, are not a future possibility; they are a present reality. The slow corrosion of resilience is harder to reverse than a sudden invasion. Britain does not need to panic, but it must pay attention. It has an opportunity to play a global leadership role, leveraging its Five Eyes advantage, and it needs to take a co-ordinated approach to protecting our domestic constituencies and addressing vulnerabilities.  By launching an informed, articulate campaign to build public awareness and support, the nation can strengthen its foundations, demonstrate resolve to adversaries, and ensure it is ready for the challenges of this new era. The luxury of delay has expired.