Putin and Trump Don’t Hold All the Cards: Wars Rarely End as Intended

By Lady Olga Maitland

Kyiv and Tehran are showing the world how to bring a colossus low

Vladimir Putin’s war with Ukraine has been the costliest great power error to date, until matched by Donald Trump’s "Operation Epic Fury" against Iran. Both men gambled on a weak adversary and assumed victory within days. However, the consequences have been vastly different for each.

Today, Russians are waking up to an economic catastrophe, and for the first time, public criticism is rising over a host of issues. Ongoing internet blackouts have become the last straw. Daily life has been immobilized by mobile internet outages; card payments are impossible, taxis cannot be ordered, and people cannot call their families. The remarks from citizens are scathing, overt, and withering. Because these criticisms are coming from so many quarters, it has become impossible for authorities to forcibly silence them all with arrests.

On the battlefield, the situation is dire, with total casualties and deaths exceeding one million. Tellingly, there were no men available for the Victory Day parade, nor were there any tanks, missiles, drones, or armaments on display. No notable foreign leaders attended, underscored by the marked absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The balance of power has shifted on the battlefield, with Ukraine clawing back 53 square miles from the Russians. The Ukrainians are now firing long-range missiles where it hurts most: military bases and energy infrastructure. Embarrassingly for the Kremlin, these strikes are now landing in Moscow and St. Petersburg, achieving the seemingly impossible by penetrating Russian air defenses. As a result, Russian citizens are no longer impervious to the war - they are terrified.

The final blow is the economic collapse. This has been spelled out very clearly in a paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) by Nigel Gould-Davies, the former UK ambassador to Belarus. The Russian economy is shrinking: debts have risen, companies have closed, and fuel shortages are spreading. Business investment has plummeted, manufacturing is in a steep contraction, and banks are in crisis as they deal with a wave of corporate debt. Non-payment of government contracts has become the norm.

What are Putin's next steps? In the short term, we can expect aggressive recruitment through state-owned companies, which are being faced with strict quotas for men to sign up - a tactic that will leave factories with even fewer workers to keep operations going. He may force a partial mobilization, though this carries severe social risks.

Diplomatically, it appears Putin has given up on Trump as a mediator and is looking for a potential peace broker in Europe instead. Trump is preoccupied with his own war in Iran and lost leverage with Ukraine after he cut off their funding. Ukraine, in any case, has found new confidence through significant technological advances on the battlefield that are now the envy of the world - including Gulf states, which have become keen purchasers of Ukrainian drones and interceptors.

Meanwhile, we are entering a "hold your breath" period. What happens next as the economic pain and disruption grind on? Putin may view himself as safe for now, but private opinion is turning heavily against the government. While public protest has not yet manifested on the streets, critical voices are increasingly making themselves heard. The ultimate upshot, when all is said and done, is that Russia is expected to pivot east toward China as a safe harbor, albeit as a supplicant.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s war with Iran has not gone to plan either.

Back home, Trump's own standing has plummeted alongside rising fuel and food costs. The Iran war is heartily disliked by the American public and was never called for. It has evolved into a vanity project for Trump, egged on by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been keen to get even with Iran for decades. This year, Netanyahu found a willing collaborator in the White House. Every time the President assures the public that a peace deal is almost done, it brings a temporary reduction in oil prices, which then shoot back up uncomfortably high as soon as the talks fall through.

The current ceasefire is fragile, to say the least, following US attacks on Iranian missile sites and fast-attack boats swooping around the Strait of Hormuz. Sure enough, the Iranians have responded by stating that retaliation can be expected. This escalation has deeply upset the Gulf states, which are pressing Trump hard to call off his attacks. They are the ultimate victims, continuing to be pummeled by Iran as proxy "whipping boys" for the US and Israel.

Meanwhile, waiting in the wings are the Chinese. President Xi Jinping does not like this war; he views it as costly, detrimental to Chinese trade with the Gulf states, and damaging to the global economy. Senior Chinese officials have pressed hard, making persistent calls to both Pakistani moderators and Iranian officials to work with the US toward a deal, effectively shaping clauses into the resulting Memorandum of Understanding.

There have been multiple calls from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Iranian officials emphasizing de-escalation, a ceasefire, and a political resolution. Their influence matters: China is Iran’s largest oil customer and one of the few economies willing to maintain commercial ties despite US sanctions. The flow of energy, especially through the Strait of Hormuz (which is currently blockaded by the Americans), is vital to China’s economy.

This economic backing has given Tehran resilience. While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) runs a brutal regime that has killed thousands of protesters and left the country hungry and desperate, domestic dissent is currently being suppressed and ignored, despite a slight and temporary lifting of the internet blackout.

In short, China depends on Middle Eastern oil. To secure its interests, Beijing recently hosted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. As bean counters, the Chinese recognize that a prolonged war threatens global shipping and energy prices. However, it should be clear that while China gives Iran cover against US pressure, it simultaneously pressures Iran to avoid uncontrolled escalation.

These two positions are not contradictory. Beijing wants Iran to be strong enough not to collapse under US pressure, but restrained enough not to trigger wider regional chaos that would damage Chinese economic interests. Iran may be a small country compared to the colossus of the United States, but thousands of years of culture and a highly educated population have equipped even this brutal regime to remain firm and resilient.

So far, neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Putin holds all the cards.

And where does the United Kingdom sit in all this?

Our greatest mistake would be complacency. We are deeply enmeshed in a hybrid war attacking us from all sides. A wounded bear like Russia will be all the more determined to score points and destabilize western nations wherever it can - and an Iran under attack will be even more motivated to do the same.

Only last week, Defence Secretary John Healey’s RAF jet, a Dassault 900LX Falcon, had its computer systems jammed in an apparent act of electronic warfare. The aircraft was flying for three hours from Estonia back to the UK, passing close to Russian airspace near the enclave of Kaliningrad. The situation was made more serious by the fact that the Government had previously chosen not to install standard defensive aids, including jam-proof communications, in an effort to save £200 million. As a result of the jamming, phones and laptops on board could not connect to the internet, and the cockpit dashboard malfunctioned.

This is not the first time a British government aircraft has been targeted in this manner; former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps was similarly attacked on a flight. The Resilience Imperative is actively monitoring all such incidents; click through to our website for ongoing updates.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the head of Britain’s largest spy agency (GCHQ), Anne Keast-Butler, warned in a rare speech at Bletchley Park on May 27th that Russia is scaling up its daily hybrid activity against the UK.

"GCHQ and its partner intelligence agencies are fending off Kremlin-sponsored cyberattacks," she stated, "while proxies suspected of acting for Russia are believed to be behind a wave of arson, propaganda, deception, and other sabotage incidents targeting critical infrastructure, supply chains, and indeed, public trust."

It should also be noted that China is using its own links with domestic espionage hubs to root out Hong Kongers who have been granted leave to live in the UK.

Final word: Yesterday, May 27th, a kosher supermarket in North London was set ablaze. The Metropolitan Police are currently treating the incident as "suspicious."