Peace on Paper, Fire on the Ground: Trump, Netanyahu, and the Unravelling Alliance

By Lady Olga Maitland

In the still bustling cafes and bars of Beirut, the consensus is clear: the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump has become noisy and angry. The question is not whether they disagree, but how much longer Mr Netanyahu can afford to ignore the American President's demands.

The Israeli Prime Minister faces an uncomfortable reality. He once saw Mr Trump as the most pro-Israel president in American history, convinced him to take on Iran, and they set off in military unison. But as the war spun out of control, Mr Trump - concerned by the economic chaos affecting his domestic standing - has changed course, seeking closure. Mr Netanyahu sees it differently.

The core tension is stark: will Netanyahu stop hitting Hezbollah, which has undermined Mr Trump's deal with Iran? For Bibi, the Memorandum has been a disaster. He sees his decades-long mission to silence Iran once and for all brutally undermined to save Mr Trump's political skin back home. Worse still, this humiliation arrives just as he seeks to win the October election and crown it with a victory parade.

Matthew Gould, the former British ambassador to Israel, captured the dilemma in the Sunday Times: "The question for him will be, how far is he prepared to push it and what degree of fury from the White House can he can sustain before it becomes politically counterproductive (as well as deeply damaging to himself)."

A contact in Tel Aviv offered a parting observation about Sir Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister: "Interesting developments in the UK, not encouraging for Israel. Keir was the best of the worst."

Oman: Walking the Tightrope

By Chief, National Guard Bureau - CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=145250869

Keep an eye on Oman. The sultanate skilfully navigates a pathway with the Iranians and holds the key to the future of Hormuz. For decades, Muscat's careful diplomacy has borne fruit - peaceful relations with Tehran, trusted mediation, and strategic patience.

Even when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps bombed fuel tanks holding millions of dollars of reserves, the Omanis stayed cool and in touch. Their mission is clear. Their leadership is equally candid: "We abide by the rules of the International Maritime Organisation, no tolls, free passage for all."

As for the noise and insults flying from President Trump to the Iranian delegation in Switzerland, Omani analysts are sanguine: "Our advice is to ignore it. The negotiators have now gone home, leaving the technicians to get on with the detail. This is where the real work is."

Interestingly, the American team - Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner - may be an asset. As one contact noted: "One advantage of not being diplomats who can spin things out, as businessmen understanding Trump, they know what they want, they are very direct, and at least this speeds up the process.

Russia: the social contract strains as Putin can no longer shield ordinary Russians from the war he unleashed agaisnt Ukraine

Ukraine's spectacular missile strikes on St Petersburg provided the most visible indication that Putin's invasion is not going to plan. The drone attacks were deeply embarrassing - they took place just as Mr Putin was taking the stage at his International Economic Forum, the skyline shrouded in black smoke.

The strikes have not stopped. Moscow is now a regular target. This week alone, a devasting attack on an oil refinery brought "black rain" descending on the city. Muscovites are asking an uncomfortable question: why are their air defences failing?

The answer is that Ukrainian drone capability has been vastly ramped up. The Moscow air defence system cannot cope with the new technology raining down on military and industrial targets. More drones are getting through.

This puts the social contract Putin has maintained under severe strain. The deal was simple: Russians would experience minimal disruption in their daily lives - save for the half a million deaths and casualties from the Front, about which they have been silenced.

But for how long? Strikes on oil refineries are contributing to a mounting fuel crisis across Russian regions. Many Russians now face restrictions on gasoline and diesel, sparking frustration on social networks - when internet closures allow. Air travel is regularly disrupted by Ukrainian drones, with flights cancelled and passengers trapped at airports for days.

Battlefield successes on Ukraine's part are mounting and morale is climbing. But do not underestimate Russia's formidable strength. Expect hybrid war activities across Europe to intensify. Governments will be under increasing pressure to spend more on defence - a debate that may finally gain urgency after the resignations of UK Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns, borne out of principle and despair over the lack of defence spending.

There is a quieter story unfolding on the front in Ukraine. In makeshift sheds barely kilometres from the firing line, highly innovative engineers are upgrading and creating a new generation of battlefield drones - sophisticated strike capabilities that have shifted the dial against the Russians. Two such engineers, Peter Verzilov and Slava Mijarov, attached to Ukraine's National Guard 1st Corps "Azov," have made their mark at the forefront of Ukraine's most advanced battlefield technology. What struck me most was their modesty. They bore the marks of battlefield scars - haunted expressions - but quiet determination.

Algeria: Looking Ahead

I confess to a deep fondness and respect for Algeria, particularly in my role as Honorary President of the Algeria British Business Council. I have known the country well for over twenty years, watching it develop from where it was in 2005 - still reeling from civil war - into the confident nation it is today, playing an active role supporting the non-aligned movement.

This week brought excellent news: Algeria's fight against corruption has been formally recognised by the Financial Action Task Force. They have been removed from the FATF grey list - a clean slate hard-earned through years of determined effort.

The Algerian government worked tirelessly to clear up corruption, money laundering, and the financing of terrorism rooted in the system for decades. Their investigations landed many ministers and two former prime ministers in jail, along with major businessmen. Today, Algeria can hold its head high and continue to welcome fresh foreign direct investment into the country.

23 June 2026