President Trump's Global Re-set

Report by Emily Claessen for Defence and Security Forum

following a dinner held in London on 9 April 2025

Speaker: Greg Swenson, Chairman of Republicans Overseas UK

Moderator: Lady Olga Maitland

This report outlines Greg Swenson’s assessment of the current geopolitical landscape, as presented to the DSF. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Defence and Security Forum.

Mr Swenson maintains that Trump 2.0 is not Trump 1.0. After four years of inflation, porous borders, and cultural upheaval during the Biden administration, he argues that Trump’s return to the White House isn’t a break from the past, but a revival of national priorities the political mainstream long chose to ignore. This time, Trump’s approach is more strategic and precise, with a clearer vision, a more focused plan, and sharper objectives – no longer concerned with seeking bipartisan approval or playing within the system.

The Tariffs: A Provocation With Purpose

The administration’s universal 10% tariff - imposed for a 90-day window - has jolted world markets and diplomatic circles. But it signals that America’s market, the most prized in the world, will no longer be offered without cost or consequence.

Why, Swenson asks, should the United States run massive deficits while others run surpluses? Why should Americans fund the prosperity of trading partners that impose barriers in return? And why should the U.S. depend on supply chains controlled by geopolitical adversaries?

Trump’s tariff move is not just economic policy: it is aimed at correcting decades of structural imbalances - especially with China, which now controls over 50% of global shipbuilding while the U.S. lags behind at 0.1%. The U.S. must not cut itself off from global trade, but should no longer allow its economy to be leveraged against its own citizens. These tariff moves are not just about trade; they are part of a broader vision of economic sovereignty, which Trump sees as essential to national security.

Economic Sovereignty = National Security

Swenson states that a nation buried under $36 trillion in debt cannot fund global security commitments indefinitely. America is now spending more on interest payments than on defence - an unsustainable inversion of priorities that Trump aims to reverse.

He further asserts that in that light, trade, tariffs, and industrial policy are frontline issues. A strong economy underpins deterrence, and energy independence is no longer just a cost issue - it is a shield against adversaries who weaponise fossil fuels to fund militias from Gaza to the Gulf.

Realpolitik Over Rhetoric

Marked by realpolitik, Trump’s second-term foreign policy is blunt, deal-driven, and often combative. But despite all the drama, it has proven effective.

In Ukraine, Trump is pushing for a negotiated settlement - not because he favours Russia, but because he sees a strategic deadlock. Military aid continues - Patriot missiles, precision systems - but without illusions. Biden’s incremental drip-feed of support prolonged the war and cost lives. The failure to deliver tools like the Link 16 communication system - resulting in friendly fire deaths - was proof of a reactive, unfocused strategy.

Swenson points out that Trump’s critics accused him of coddling Putin, yet he was the first U.S. president to accuse Putin publicly of orchestrating the 1999 Russian apartment bombings. He sent lethal aid to Ukraine while Biden sent blankets. He withdrew from the INF treaty, sanctioned Nord Stream, and confronted NATO allies over their dependency on Moscow.

Now, with U.S. aid stretching thin, Trump is demanding a new deal: if Europe wants American protection, it must meet America halfway - on defence spending, energy policy, and trade fairness.

Europe’s Reckoning

Trump’s view of Europe is not disdainful; it’s disappointed. The U.S. has long subsidised European security, healthcare, and digital speech policing, all while being criticised by the same governments it protects. The $300 billion trade deficit with the EU represents more than just an economic statistic, he said, it highlights broader issues in trade fairness, defence burden-sharing, and cultural alignment.

According to Greg Swenson, leaders in Europe remain fixated on climate orthodoxy and migration policies out of step with public sentiment. Mass protests are viewed as symptoms of a deeper government-population disconnect. Europe must therefore confront its own contradictions, or risk strategic irrelevance in a world no longer run on postwar assumptions.

The Domestic Front

Swenson believes that at home, the Trump counter-revolution is cultural as much as economic. The Biden years saw a re-politicisation of education, identity-based governance, and a Department of Justice accused of labelling concerned parents as “domestic terrorists.” Trump’s administration is reversing course - reinstating merit-based admissions, defunding DEI bureaucracies, and reasserting boundaries at the border, with illegal crossings already down 94%.

Inflation is now being tackled not through monetary tricks but structural reforms. The Inflation Reduction Act - infamously stuffed with $700 billion in climate initiatives - is no longer untouchable. Markets, long craving stability, have welcomed the administration’s hard resets with cautious optimism.

The Limits of Generosity

The new administration is also forcing difficult conversations long avoided. Can the U.S. afford to fund European welfare states and global defence guarantees while borrowing against its own future? If not, how should it prioritise?

As the U.S. moves towards the Indo-Pacific, European allies are being told - sometimes bluntly - that America’s generosity is not infinite. The message is neither isolationist nor hostile, Swenson argues. It is pragmatic: help us help you, or risk being left behind.

Even Trump’s critics are beginning to acknowledge the coherence of the second-term strategy. The tariffs, the Pacific pivot and the energy revival - all fit into a broader worldview: sovereign engagement, and not entangling altruism.

The Counter-Revolution Continues

American politics is locked in a structural stalemate - 50-50, culturally polarised, and electorally fractious. What makes Trump’s second term different is not the margins, but the mandate: to restore a broken balance between global integration and domestic resilience.

Swenson concluded that this is not a new war. It’s the same fight Reagan waged - this time, against different forces. And Reagan would not have been Reagan without Carter. Biden, in that analogy, plays his part perfectly.

Trump’s second term promises to reshape both America’s role in the world and its domestic priorities, challenging long-held assumptions and forcing a reckoning with the complexities of global power and national resilience.

The opinions reported herein reflect those of the Speaker and not necessarily those of the DSF.