Speakers: Lieut. General Sir Simon Mayall, Shay Zavaro, Firas (Abi Ali) Modad, Lady Olga Maitland
6 February 2025, London
With Donald Trump back in the White House, and Israel adjusting its strategic approach, the Middle East, long defined by entrenched conflicts and fleeting diplomatic efforts, is now at an inflection point where historical grievances, power realignments, and economic ambitions are converging in unpredictable way.
Israel’s Dilemma Between War and Political Upheaval
For Israel, the war in Gaza has proven both a tactical and political dilemma. Despite a sustained military campaign, Hamas remains operational, demonstrating an unexpected resilience. Meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics is fracturing. The return of hostages and potential normalisation with Saudi Arabia have become political lifelines for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who might face early elections.
The Israeli right wing, emboldened by the conflict, is increasingly embracing a strategy of incremental annexation in the West Bank. Settlements are no longer isolated outposts but burgeoning cities, and military control is becoming entrenched. Meanwhile, RPG attacks in the West Bank and escalating tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon raise concerns about the potential for further violence.
Netanyahu’s political survival is tied to these developments. With Trump back in power, he sees an opportunity to leverage Washington’s transactional approach. But does Israel want to be strong in order to negotiate, or strong in order to avoid negotiation altogether?
Trump’s Real Estate Over Peace?
Trump’s vision for Gaza - reminiscent of his past business ventures - imagines the devastated strip as a future Riviera, backed by Gulf investment. Yet, the security realities of Gaza, coupled with Hamas’ continued presence, make such ambitions look fantastical. Trump may push for an international policing force in the West Bank, effectively removing Israeli and Palestinian sovereignty over key areas.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, remains in a balancing act. While Mohammed bin Salman explores normalisation, the 4am release of a Saudi statement rejecting the forced displacement of Palestinians suggests deep hesitations. The kingdom cannot afford to lose its Islamic legitimacy, and any deal that undermines Palestinian claims risks domestic and regional backlash.
Iran: A Revolution in Crisis
Iran, once confident in its regional proxies, is witnessing a collapse of its long-term strategy. The "ring of fire" surrounding Israel - Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis - has been weakened. The Shia Crescent is fractured, with Syria’s civil war now favouring Turkish-backed Sunni groups rather than Tehran’s allies. This has led to an ideological crisis: Should Iran double down on its pan-Islamist ambitions or pivot toward a nationalist Shia strategy? Khamenei’s hold on power is increasingly fragile, with internal factions debating whether a nuclear deterrent is the only path to survival.
Some argue that now is the time to strike Iran preemptively. Yet, history dictates that no Middle Eastern war is fought in isolation. Without U.S. backing, an Israeli attack remains unlikely, and Trump, for all his hawkish rhetoric, seems more inclined to escalate economic sanctions than commit to military action.
The Emerging Sunni Order and the Rise of Turkey
If Iran is the region’s declining force, Turkey is its rising power. The collapse of Syria’s Alawite regime has allowed Turkey to extend its influence deeper into the Levant. The Muslim Brotherhood, long seen as a threat by Gulf monarchies, is gaining traction under Ankara’s leadership and Qatar’s financing. Should Jordan’s Hashemite monarchy weaken, the path to a restored Ottoman-style Sunni bloc becomes more plausible.
This shift underscores our position at the end of Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man and the start of Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations more than ever. The ideological battle lines are being redrawn, with a radicalised Sunni bloc emerging as a potential challenge not only to Israel but also to Europe and the wider West.
What Comes Next?
The illusion of a two-state solution is now buried. Israel’s settlements have made Palestinian statehood almost impossible, while Hamas' popularity in the West Bank has surged post-October 7. Meanwhile, Western diplomatic efforts appear detached from the realities on the ground.
Trump’s return marks a moment in history where diplomacy is defined by deals rather than ideals - whether that translates into lasting stability or yet another cycle of conflict remains to be seen. In the meantime, every road still leads back to Gaza, where war and politics continue to shape the future of the region.
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