Ukraine on the Brink

Report by Emily Claessen for the Defence and Security Forum following a dinner on 28 May 2025

Speakers: Eduard Fesko, on behalf of the Ambassador General Valerii Zaluzhni,

Brigadier Ben Barry, Lady Olga Maitland

 Moderator: Rt. Hon. Sir Malcolm Rifkind, KCMG, KC

Russia’s campaign in Ukraine is deeply rooted in history and driven by long-standing ambitions. It has been fuelled by Western hesitance and a dangerously underestimated resolve. As Lord Palmerston warned in the 19th century, Russia “pushes as fast and as far as the apathy or want of firmness of other governments will allow it to go”, and that warning remains painfully relevant in 2025. Despite heavy losses, Russia continues its war with little credible deterrence from the West.

Historical Context and Realities on the Ground

For Ukraine, the war was never an aberration but a continuation of centuries-old imperial ambitions. The breakup of the Soviet Union was not an imposition but a conscious choice by former republics to forge sovereign futures, a choice Putin refuses to accept. The conflict aims to reverse the independence of nations Moscow never truly let go.

Russia continues a costly assault, suffering nearly one million casualties since 2022, including over 190,000 in the first five months of 2025 - about 1,300 daily - without making significant strategic gains. Yet, Moscow is rapidly replenishing forces, planning up to 15 new divisions and conscripting around 280,000 soldiers this year to sustain the war.

Supported by allies like North Korea (supplying half of its artillery shells) and Iran (providing attack drones and UAV production), Russia’s military production is extensive. In 2025, it aims to produce over 7 million artillery shells - more than all European countries combined - and 500 attack drones daily, along with thousands of advanced long-range missiles.

Ukraine continues to fight with determination but faces immense challenges adapting to this evolving battlefield. Western delays in providing advanced weapons like F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles hamper Kyiv’s ability to match Russian logistics and firepower.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s defence industry has expanded dramatically - from $1 billion in production in 2022 to an estimated $35 billion in 2025 - enabling development and deployment of advanced drone technology. Ukrainian forces have pioneered cost-effective drone interception tactics, such as using low-cost interceptor drones to neutralise expensive Russian attack UAVs, enhancing air defence efficiency amid limited traditional missile interceptors.

Ukraine’s expanding strike capabilities now reach deep into Russian territory, with tested drone ranges exceeding 3,000 kilometers and over a million domestically produced artillery shells authorised for operational use this year. And while the land battle remains largely defensive for Ukraine, Kyiv has gained the initiative at sea, exerting considerable pressure on Russian naval operations in the Black Sea.

Western Response

Russia’s strategy explicitly relies on Western hesitance. Moscow believes the West is unwilling to escalate militarily or economically - reluctant to impose harsher sanctions on Russia’s banking sector or oil revenues - and is divided internally, especially between the United States and European allies. This split is perhaps Russia’s most significant recent strategic victory, as it weakens the unity needed to impose decisive consequences and emboldens Moscow to continue fighting without fear of retribution.

Economic sanctions have targeted Russia but with limitations. Russian banks remain connected to global systems like SWIFT, and oil and gas revenues continue to flow, despite sanctions. Confiscating Russian assets frozen abroad remains a legal and financial minefield, with real risks of disrupting the global financial system.

Cyber and Defence

Cyber and electronic warfare have become just as crucial as battles on the ground. Despite early fears, Russian cyberattacks have not decisively crippled Ukrainian infrastructure thanks to Ukraine’s prior experience and international cyber support. Both sides rapidly innovate: Ukraine counters GPS jamming with fiber-optic-controlled drones, while Russia adapts quickly.

At home, Ukraine endures immense human and economic costs. Morale is strained but resolute. The Ukrainian people, despite exhaustion, understand the stakes - their children’s future depends on this fight.

European nations are gradually filling the vacuum left by U.S. retrenchment, albeit unevenly. Germany’s defence industry and Baltic states like Estonia are innovating and supplying Ukraine with critical technologies, particularly drones, while Western bureaucracies often slow procurement and deployment.

Prospects for Peace

In March 2025, Ukraine supported a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire aimed at halting hostilities and enabling meaningful negotiations, but Russia repeatedly refused to accept this proposal. Peace talks are stalled, and Putin’s position is driven by what he thinks he can still win on the ground. As long as he perceives his strategic goals as attainable, he remains inflexible. Ukraine is prepared to negotiate but rejects premature peace that rewards territorial aggression.

A frozen conflict - similar to the stalemate on the Korean Peninsula - looks like the most likely outcome in the near future. But if that happens, it could end up giving Russia’s imperial ambitions a stamp of approval and damage NATO’s reputation, putting the whole European security setup and democratic values around the world at risk.

Outside the Euro-Atlantic region, the global response has been fairly muted. Many in the Global South perceive Western support for Ukraine as inconsistent, especially in light of other conflicts.

A Fork in the Road

The war in Ukraine is testing global unity, resolve, and the principles underpinning the international system. Sustained, unified support for Ukraine - military, economic, and moral - is essential to prevent the normalisation of aggression and uphold a rules-based order. This conflict has worn many people down, but hesitation now could lead to disastrous consequences that reach far beyond Ukraine. This isn’t just Ukraine’s fight, it’s a test for all of Europe.