Turkey Today

A report by Emily Claessen for the Defence and Security Forum following a Round Table dinner on 27 May 2025 with our speaker Dr. Cengiz Özgencil and moderator, Firas Modad

A decade ago, Ankara was often cast as a would-be EU member with a troubled democracy and a fragile economy. Today, it is something far more complex: an actor straddling continents and alliances, exporting advanced drone systems, arbitrating regional conflicts, and pursuing a fiercely independent foreign policy.

Drone Diplomacy

Once a buyer of foreign weapons systems, Turkey has transformed into a manufacturing powerhouse, with the third best drone technology in the world, producing the now-iconic Bayraktar drones that have been deployed effectively in places like Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkish drones are now exported to Ukraine and other NATO-aligned states, giving Ankara indirect influence over conflicts that once bypassed it. Yet that edge may soon be contested. Russia’s deployment of sophisticated drones in Ukraine, capable of evading air defences, signals the start of a new phase in drone warfare.

Still, Ankara’s domestic defence industry, driven by a mix of national pride and Western demand, is central to the country’s emerging identity as a sovereign technological and military power.

The Ambiguity with Russia

While drones have transformed Turkey’s defence strategy, its ties with Russia reveal a careful balancing act. Turkey sells arms to Ukraine yet maintains cordial ties with Moscow. The two countries support opposing sides in Syria and Libya, yet communicate frequently behind closed doors.

Moscow’s tolerance of Turkish weapons shipments to Ukraine stems partly from a deeper need: stability among Turkic populations in Central Asia. For Putin, maintaining a functional relationship with Erdoğan helps contain potential unrest on Russia’s southern flank.

This alignment is also material. Turkey is now an important transit country for Russian energy exports, especially amid Western sanctions. The infrastructure is decades in the making, and for both Ankara and Moscow, cooperation is less about shared ideology than mutual necessity.

Between Europe and Beijing

On the other side of the Atlantic, U.S. priorities are shifting. Washington’s focus on containing China increasingly trumps its interest in Ukraine, so weakening Russia facilitates coalition-building in Asia. Turkey is again indispensable - a NATO member, a Black Sea power, and a Eurasian interlocutor.

Yet Ankara is not waiting for Western validation. With its bid for EU membership indefinitely stalled, its post-Brexit trade deal with the UK, diplomatic initiatives in Africa, and assertive moves in the Eastern Mediterranean signal a government willing to move quickly and opportunistically.

Ankara’s regional vision

Erdoğan’s vision is focused less on reclaiming former imperial territories and more on expanding Turkey’s cultural influence, economic ties, and strategic partnerships across regions historically connected to Istanbul. Turkish intelligence is active in Lebanon. Turkish firms invest in Somalia. Turkish-backed militias shape outcomes in northern Syria. And across Central Asia, Ankara draws on shared language, history, and religion to position itself as a regional cultural power.

A Divided Middle East

In a fractured Middle East, Ankara is now both an actor and arbiter. Turkey’s Sunni alignment puts it at odds with Iranian-backed Shia movements across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Yet rather than confronting Iran head-on, Turkey uses influence to counterbalance Tehran’s reach.

In Lebanon, for instance, Turkish intelligence activities in Tripoli compete with Saudi and Iranian proxies. In Syria, Turkish-backed factions grow stronger, while Israel and Ankara quietly share interests in managing northern border stability, despite their public antagonism.

This ability to play multiple hands at once - arming Ukraine while trading with Russia, criticising Israel while increasing trade, and courting Europe while expanding in Central Asia is Erdoğan’s doctrine of adaptive power.

From Domestic Uncertainty to Regional Power

For all its geopolitical ambition, Turkey’s domestic landscape remains unsettled. Inflation bites deep into household incomes. Economic volatility has driven away some foreign investment. And Erdoğan’s push for constitutional reform raises fresh concerns about democratic backsliding. Yet there is strategy to the apparent contradictions. By prioritising sovereign capability and global relevance, Erdoğan positions Turkey as a nation that can neither be contained nor ignored.

The old world order is gone. In its place, a patchwork of regional powers and nimble actors is emerging. Turkey, with its imperial memory and modern military, is not just reacting to that shift; it is part of it.

by Emily Claessen,

27 May 2025