Britain's NATO reckoning

By Lady Olga Maitland, July 2026

Hot times indeed at the NATO summit - and an especially uncomfortable moment for Sir Keir Starmer as he took his seat in the conference room at the Presidential complex. Protocol seats NATO leaders alphabetically, and so Sir Keir found himself beside President Trump: hardly a comfortable arrangement, given the Prime Minister is already under fire over Britain's defence spending sliding down NATO's league table for military expenditure as a share of GDP, and over delivery on promised capabilities. Mr Trump's dismissive remarks following the announcement of Sir Keir's resignation as Prime Minister will not have helped.

Britain’s Grip on NATO’s DSACEUR Role Loosens

What interests me more is Britain's hold on one of NATO's most prestigious posts: Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (DSACEUR). That position now looks a credible risk. Where does the United Kingdom stand today - is it still a voice of real influence within the Alliance?

NATO decisions are taken by consensus, but countries that contribute more military capability tend to carry greater informal influence over strategy and force planning. For now, Britain's traditional standing as one of NATO's leading military powers looks set to diminish.

Britain has long urged its European allies to spend more on defence; falling behind our own spending commitments weakens that argument considerably.  Allies who invest more heavily may take on greater responsibility for operations and planning, leaving Britain contributing less frequently to major multinational missions.

Set against that, NATO still values what Britain brings. It retains an independent nuclear deterrent, which absorbs some 20% of our defence budget, alongside a strong record in special forces operations and advanced intelligence capabilities freely shared with allies.

The DSACEUR post has been held by a British officer almost continuously since NATO's early years and is regarded as one of the UK's most important positions within the Alliance. The current holder is Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer. Yet the role rests on long-standing convention rather than treaty guarantee - and recent comments suggest that convention should no longer be taken for granted.

A warning came from NATO's military headquarters, where US Colonel Martin O'Donnell recently told The Times, "If the UK does not meet the Alliance's agreed defence spending and capability commitments, it could put its leadership position at risk." Asked specifically whether Britain could lose the DSACEUR post, he replied that past practice "doesn't necessarily mean that will continue in perpetuity."

That warning echoes former DSACEUR Sir Keith Blunt, who has argued that without a clear path to meeting NATO's targets, the UK risks becoming a "following nation" rather than a leading one - a risk best summed up as "politically plausible rather than operationally imminent." Should Britain fail over a prolonged period to strengthen its capability while others step up theirs, the convention of a British DSACEUR could eventually be reconsidered.

That would be a hard outcome to accept. It was Britain that took the lead in supporting Ukraine in 2022, establishing the Coalition of the Willing and committing much of its arsenal to Kyiv's defence. Having done so, it would be rough justice indeed if Britain could not retain the respect and status it has long enjoyed.

A Turkey perspective on the NATO Summit

A good friend, the academic Professor Ilter Turan, sends me his weekly dispatch — this time a view from the ground in Ankara during the NATO Summit.

He writes of the months Turkey has spent in preparation: "It spent a fortune so that Leaders may land at an airport not ordinarily used by civilians. Delegates travel on recently improved roads, unimpeded. For all the roads in Ankara have been closed."

Indeed the journey from the airport may cause a raised eyebrow. Sides of the highways have been covered in scaffolding and boarding to prevent eyes seeing the poverty that lies beyond the plywood.

The unintended consequence is that Leaders may decide that, after all, Turkey does not need as much economic support as it says, because all seems in good shape!

The Leaders have chosen to overlook the academics, politicians, critics, activists, lawyers and journalists locked up to keep them silent.

Turkey is no model for democracy.

A Wounded Bear is Dangerous

Last week two Russian military aircraft dropped a large number of sonobuoys - tracking devices - close to HMS Prince of Wales in the Norwegian Sea, and this will likely only be the beginning. Yet all is not well back in Moscow.

Vladimir Solovyov, a close ally of President Putin, has voiced alarm over the potential for social unrest as a severe fuel shortage grips the country. On his radio programme, Full Contact, Solovyov - one of Russia's most strident propagandists and a fixture on state television and radio - expressed deep concern about the crisis triggered by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian oil refineries.

The attacks have slashed refining capacity by roughly a third, causing petrol and diesel shortages that have spread from occupied Crimea and southern Russia to Siberia and even Moscow. Queues at petrol stations stretch for miles, with some drivers waiting up to 18 hours; tempers are flaring, prompting police intervention.

Taxi firms report a 20% drop in journeys as drivers avoid long trips for fear of running dry. A grey market for fuel has emerged on platforms like Telegram, echoing the chaos of the immediate post-Soviet years, while those who can resort to "fuel tourism" across the borders into Kazakhstan or China.

Most telling are Solovyov's remarks, notable for their frankness from a figure known for hawkish, pro-war rhetoric. He reportedly warned of elites turning against the regime and of risks akin to upheaval, with opponents "gaining momentum" amid the economic pain. His comments reflect growing anxiety in Kremlin circles that the visible breakdown of normal life could erode public tolerance for the war, now in its fifth year.

The crisis challenges the Kremlin's narrative that sanctions and the war have left daily life largely untouched. Independent polls show Putin's approval rating dipping, with fewer Russians believing the country is on the right track.

Analysts note that "mass fatigue with the war is turning into mass irritation" - though Russia's authoritarian system continues to make organised protest a risky business.