Turmoil and Transition

By Lady Olga Maitland 12 March 2025

Photo credit: "RAF Tornado GR4" by Defence Images is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

The past three weeks may prove as consequential for Europe as 9/11 — or even the tumultuous 1930s, when the spectre of war loomed large, might triumphed over right, and the rules of sovereignty crumbled. Today, the world watches, dazed, as events unfold with alarming speed. By the end of this week, there may be clarity on whether Ukraine and Russia will begin negotiations to end the war—or there may not, leaving the region in a state of prolonged uncertainty. The situation is painful to witness, yet Europe remains alarmingly complacent in addressing the urgent need to bolster its own defence capabilities.

As Brigadier Ben Barry, a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), observes, “The promised increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP—an additional £6 billion—barely touches the sides of the need.  It might stop the decline, but only if it is well spent.” This sentiment underscores a growing concern: while incremental increases in defence budgets are a step in the right direction, they fall far short of the transformative investment needed to meet the challenges of a rapidly deteriorating security environment.

The upcoming Defence and Security Review in June will be a critical moment for the United Kingdom. The central question is whether the country will rise to the challenge and follow the example set by Poland, which allocates 4.7% of its GDP to defence—or at least meet the widely recommended threshold of 3%. The stakes could not be higher. In an era where geopolitical tensions are escalating and the rules-based order is under strain, half-measures will not suffice. The time for decisive action is now.

Meanwhile, other regions remain mired in turmoil. In Syria, the brutal attacks and killings targeting Assad’s people, the Alawite community,  have shocked the world. Questions abound over whether Acting President Farouk al-Sharaa has lost control. Firas Modas, in his recent paper (included below), envisages a controlling Sunni government—not that different from the Assad regime.

We can expect Turkey to exert increasing influence in Syria, potentially even deploying its army to help maintain order. A source in Beirut suggests this might not be an unwelcome development. The prevailing view is that Mr. al-Sharaa will cling to power, at least for now. While the United Kingdom has taken the lead in lifting sanctions on 42 Syrian entities, the United States and the European Union have hesitated, demanding a clear political transition to an inclusive government. This presents a classic Catch-22: without a functioning economy, how can Syria hope to move forward?

Israel is struggling, overstretched and grappling with conflicts on multiple fronts. In Beirut, there is cautious hope that President Trump’s recent overtures to Hamas could break the stalemate and sidestep Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Privately, some within Israel express disbelief at the current state of affairs, with one observer remarking, “This is all crazy.” As the region teeters on the edge, the need for decisive leadership and innovative diplomacy has never been more urgent. Yet, with so many competing interests and entrenched animosities, the path to stability remains elusive.