The New World Disorder

By Lady Olga Maitland, 9 April 2025

The global economic order has been thrown into disarray in recent days. Wild swings in stock prices reflect deepening anxiety that Donald Trump’s tariffs could tip the world into recession. Responses have varied, from Beijing’s bellicose pledge to “fight to the end” to the European Union’s more cautious openness to negotiation. But one thing is certain: geopolitical tensions have just become harder to contain.

Our early view is that military tensions will rise as economic woes make diplomacy harder.

Here is another perspective:

• Trump’s tariff war is uneven in its impact. Algeria has been largely spared, despite facing a 30% increase in duties. The reason lies in its export mix: the country’s hydrocarbons flow chiefly to Europe, Africa, and Asia, insulating it from the worst of America’s trade offensive. For now, Algiers is more preoccupied by the spread of extremist Islamism from neighbouring Mali and its potential influence on the Tuareg tribes in Algeria’s south.

Understanding Mr Trump’s approach is key. His dealings are purely transactional. A cooperative bilateral relationship, however distasteful it may seem, will yield more than confrontation. To him, diplomacy is personal — and capricious, blowing hot to cold on a whim.  Morality scarcely enters the equation, which is hard for us to take.

Ukraine / Russia

Meanwhile, Russia’s relentless assault on Ukraine continues. Contacts on the ground report profound exhaustion but no willingness to submit to Russian domination. Holding presidential elections amid the war appears unthinkable—and logistically impossible, with 2m Ukrainians displaced abroad and another 1m serving at the front. For Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, pushing for a vote would be a gamble. Volodymyr Zelensky is riding high in the polls, though sources suggest that General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now Ambassador in London, would pose a real challenge as an alternative. But make no mistake: his stance on Russia mirrors that of Zelensky: uncompromising.

Middle East

In the Middle East, Israel continues to attack military bases in Syria. A Tel Aviv source insists that President al-Sharaa remains an Islamist militant, and still refers to him by his former name, Jolaani.  Israel has had poor relations with Syria for decades, and therefore leaves nothing to chance.  However, there may be a chance of a shift, as the UAE positions itself in a key intermediary role.  The UAE has invited representatives from both sides to meet in Abu Dhabi.

Patience, not haste, will decide the outcome.  My Middle East source tells me: ‘It is a matter of time.  Syria ‘s position that it has no intention or interest in attacking Israel has still to be accepted.  They need reassuring. The leadership today has shifted considerably from its earlier hardline Islamism, so much so that new embassies are being established in Damascus, the latest being Canada.’